Ooh, They So Sensitive
Will
Graduation win Kaye his third Pazz & Jop poll for just his third studio album--an unprecedented feat, which would make him the
Voice poll's second-winningest artist ever, after only four-time champ Bob Dylan; West's pair of poll-toppers already ties him with Elvis Costello, the Clash, and OutKast.
I posed my "will he or won't he" query to some other music critics, curious of their take on Kanye's chances of making it three for three.
Fluxblog's Matthew Perpetua responded, "I kinda doubt it, I don't think the record has as many fans as the last two did, and though it'll probably do well, I figure something else will eclipse it. Anyway, I sure hope that it doesn't."
Justin Cober-Lake of
PopMatters and
Stylus Magazine said, "I think it's got a shot, but I don't think it will quite do it. I suspect that by this point there are enough people who just don't want to vote for Kanye. And while it's an impressive album, there are a few clunkers in the last third. I think
Neon Bible and
Kala both have a chance, as does
Sound of Silver."
Meanwhile,
Robert Christgau, "Dean of American Rock Critics" and former Pazz & Jop poobah, and
Michaelangelo Matos, the mastermind behind
Idolator's upstart rival poll,
Jackin' Pop, declined to make predictions; the former confirmed that he'd be voting in
Idolator's poll again this year and the latter replied, "I'd rather not speculate right now--it's too early, and I wouldn't want to risk altering the vote in any case."
Fair enough.
But I do want to start speculating, however early it may be in the year, and I sincerely doubt that a post here on JLT/JLT will alter the outcome of either poll. My two cents says, if nothing earth-shattering comes along in the next few months (the new Radiohead isn't due out until next year, right?), I think we're looking at a repeat of
two years ago, with Kanye narrowly edging out M.I.A.
True, people aren't quite as passionate about
Graduation as they were about his previous two, but people aren't as into
Kala as
Arular either. And, again, I think he'll edge her out for the same reasons he did in '05: Mainstream trumps marginal, especially when we're talking roughly the same genre (this isn't
Lucinda vs. Lauryn in '98) and not entirely dissimilar artists (headstrong, arty, confrontational, overambitious--which is to say, they both tend to appeal to iconoclasts).
Plus, a) I suspect the consistent-if-not-spectacular
Graduation (not my favorite album of 2007, but probably my favorite album so far this year that actually has a sporting chance of topping the polls) will hold up better over the year's final quarter than the spottier
Kala, and, more importantly, b) Kanye will once again benefit from a mix of genuine enthusiasm and token hip hop placement.
So far as I can tell, there really isn't much else out there this year rap-wise that's going to achieve any real consensus among non-rap fans. I guess people like the Common, and he might cut a bit into Kanye's totals and will likely finish high, but I think most hardcore hip-hop heads will snub it, whereas a good chunk will presumably cite
Graduation. I haven't encountered anyone, on or offline, who really cares about the new T.I. The UGK should muster some support, but I can't see non-rap fans voting for it. 50 probably won't even place, though Kanye will probably benefit additionally from the manufactured cause celebre of his triumph in their sales battle.
Assuming a proper version of
The Carter III drops before ballots are due, Lil Wayne might be the wild card with regard to rap, but I think he'll perform better in the younger-skewing
Idolator poll than with P&J's 50-plus contingent, who can't seem to stomach much rap beyond OutKast and Kanye--probably Common too, and perhaps finally Ghostface since he's developed that air of critical reverence.
As for the rest, I'm guessing rock critic rock will inevitably loom large. The usual suspects: Arcade Fire (I still don't get the appeal), White Stripes (people like this one more than their last one, right?), Spoon, LCD Soundsystem, Animal Collective, Elliot Smith maybe (indie rock's Tupac?). Are people digging the Liars CD? I haven't really paid attention. Neil Young has a new one, I think, which should take some of the boomer vote.
PJ Harvey seems like a lock to place somewhere (not counting
Dance Hall at Louse Point, her albums have finished #4, #3, #1, #7, #2, and #33, chronologically), and I'll go out on a limb and guess top 10, since I'm feeling optimistic. The new one from the New Pornos will probably crack the top 10, too, though most people don't seem that enthusiastic about it (and I live in their home province). Nellie McKay and the Fiery Furnaces might place respectably, too, if their new ones get people excited about them again. Feist is top 10 all the way, no question (not mine, mind you, but poll-wise).
I'm not sure where to slot
Crazy Ex-Girlfriend or
West (my for-now first and third-favorite albums of the year, respectively). Since
Kerosene placed and most people agree that Miranda's new one is superior, I'm crossing my fingers she'll end up top 25. Lucinda usually equals consensus, but this one's considerably more divisive than her others. I'm thinking somewhere between 11-20.
I hope, in projecting "Umbrella" as the odds-on favorite to top the singles list, that people don't forget that Rihanna made a damn good album. The other night we were at a club, and the four
Good Girl Gone Bad tracks the DJ played--none of which, incidentally, were "Umbrellla"--seemed to elicit the best crowd response of anything in his set, give or take Timbaland's "Way I Are," which I'm thinking is top 5 singles-wise.
I'm not really sure what else will finish high on the singles list. Something by Kanye (hopefully "Can't Tell Me Nothing," more likely "Stronger")? Justice? "Give It To Me"? "I Get Money" (assuming people can get past their 50-hatin' long enough to recognize that the track's fantastic)? Something off
Kala (I'd love to see "Jimmy" place, not so much "Boyz" or "Bird Flu")? Some indie rock smash I've successfully managed to ignore?
I'd love to see "Before He Cheats" ride its '07 ubiquity to high placement, despite coming out last year (I might just vote for it in hopes of this). Conversely, I hope "Rehab" and "Fergalicious" don't benefit from the same, thought they probably will (I wouldn't be shocked at all if the former landed in the top 5). Then again, Carrie and Amy have new records due before the year's end, which might negate the vote for songs that are more than a year old.
I'm not sure what to make of either Patti Smith or Timbaland's chances--that is, I wonder if sterling reputations will be enough to secure good finishes.
We Are the Pipettes might place well if it gets enough votes this year to carry over last year's total. I don't see it happening, but the Justin record could conceivably do the same--
Justified did.
I think the following albums will finish somewhere between eleven and twenty, though not necessarily in this order: Animal Collective's
Strawberry Jam; Elliot Smith's
New Moon; Bright Eyes'
Cassadega; Lucinda's
West; Neil Young's
Chrome Dreams II;, Wayne (if
Carter 3 comes out in time); Springsteen's
Magic (assuming it's decent); Rilo Kiley's
Under the Blacklight; The Go Team's
Proof of Youth; and the Fiery Furnaces'
Widow City.
There's probably stuff, months-old or upcoming, that I'm momentarily blanking on, but for my predicted top ten finishers, check out the
lists blog.
