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Always fun. (I've also updated my would-be Oscar ballot and my general 2016 lists to reflect late viewings, especially Pablo Lorraín's superlative pop-historical phantasmagoria, Jackie, about which I plan to write something soon.)
PICTURE
Should win: La La Land
Will win: La La Land
From a cultural/political standpoint, I'm pulling for Moonlight, but La La Land is the better movie.
DIRECTOR
Should win: Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Will win: Damien Chazelle, La La Land
ACTRESS
Should win: Natalie Portman, Jackie
Will win: Emma Stone, La La Land
I prefer Portman in Jackie by a hair over Huppert in Elle, but if Huppert were nominated for Things to Come (better performance and better film than Elle) it'd go the other way around.
ACTOR
Should win: Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Will win: Denzel Washington, Fences
If Andrew Garfield were up for Silence, he'd be my pick. (I didn't see Hacksaw Ridge.)
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Should win: Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
Will win: Viola Davis, Fences
Davis is extraordinary in Fences, to be sure, but such egregious "category fraud" is really unfair to true supporting performances, like Williams' sparingly used, affecting turn in Manchester by the Sea.
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Should win: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Will win: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Should win: Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Will win: Damien Chazelle, La La Land
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Should win: Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Will win: Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Is there any significant difference between August Wilson's theatrical script and the screenplay for Fences? Absent close inspection, there doesn't seem to be, which is why I'll go with Moonlight instead, from among this group. But how was Whit Stillman not nominated here?! His translation of Austen's epistolary Lady Susan into the fleshed-out (and thoroughly terrific) Love and Friendship is the most impressive example of adaptation in recent memory.
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Should win: Rodrigo Prieto, Silence
Will win: Linus Sandgren, La La Land
At least Scorsese's masterpiece is up for something.
SCORE
Should win: Mica Levi, Jackie
Will win: Justin Hurwitz, La La Land
I've only included this category here so that I can "vote" for that crazy, indelible Jackie score.